victory inevitable? Will the ex-dictator’s son become the first majority-elected president in contemporary history? is seemingly amassing a prohibitive lead over all other rivals, including Vice President Leonor “Leni” Robredo, the leader of the opposition, who has consistently placed second in authoritative surveys. Former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. Nevertheless, it’s hard to ignore certain trendlines in our upcoming presidential elections. This is why half-a-century since Isaac Asimov’s “Foundation” Trilogy, his concept of “psychohistory” has remained in the realm of science fiction. In short, there is nothing “inevitable” in politics, since human beings, the constituent elements of any body-politic, are at once both reflexive and emotive-a recipe for wondrous unpredictably and confounding madness. Over the past half-a-decade, we have seen the world’s flagship democracies, from the United States to Britain, succumbing to populist hysteria and demagogic shenanigans at the highest levels of governance. Just over a century ago, even just the idea of woman suffrage was largely unthinkable across much of the supposed “civilized” world.įor instance, it was only in 1918 that Britain, at the height of its imperial power, granted propertied woman over the age of 30 the right to vote under the Representation of the People Act.
This is especially true in the world of politics, where change and unpredictability often defy our most fundamental conceptions of human nature. MANILA – They say there is always a first time for everything.